Photo : Vasily Fedosenko/Reuters
05 April 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #479
War in Ukraine, Day 405:
Russia sends nuclear capable Iskander-M missile system to Belarus
By Padmashree Anandhan
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 04 April, Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Ministry released a notice on conducting the “First Black Sea Security Conference,” with Romania in mid-April. The conference aims to discuss the impact of the Ukraine war in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov to address the challenges and threats. This will help draw an overall framework for regional security and discuss information warfare and cyber threats.
On 04 April, Ukraine’s Armed Forces released a statement on the state of Russian forces. It highlighted the lag in the logistics to keep up the ammunition supplies for Russian forces. This became the prime reason for the frontline not to take the offensive road. According to the spokesperson, Russia continued to mine in the Zaporizhzhia direction, while it also brazens (something wrong with the sentence formation here) its defence in the Crimean region. On the Ukraine forces, the spokesperson said that the main target lies in weakening the enemy and complicating the combat operations than launching a counteroffensive.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 04 April, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the transit of Iskander-M missile system to the Belarus Military. The system is reported to be capable of being nuclear-armed. He added that Belarus soldiers had begun training in Russia on from 03 April and Belarus aircraft have become capable of attacking with nuclear weapons.
On 04 April, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov criticised the EU for “deteriorating the relations with Russia.” He added that Russia would opt for a tougher approach, in “reciprocal” towards the EU for supporting Ukraine with weapons.
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
On 04 April, NATO finalized Finland’s membership into NATO. Turkey and Hungary which remained the roadblocks cleared the way for Finland in March and the ratification was complete with Turkey’s parliament passing the vote in favour of Finland.
On 04 April, the intelligence update of the UK Ministry of Defence reported on Russia’s efforts to form an alternate private mercenary group similar to Wagner Group to replace it from the combat operation. According to the report: “Russia’s military leadership likely wants a replacement PMC that it has more control over.” The reason behind the move is said to be due to Russia’s belief in public acceptance of losses in the Mercenary Group compared to military personnel losses.
On 04 April, in the NATO Foreign Affairs, the Ministers are expected to discuss increasing aid and., a “muti-year support programme” to support Ukraine in moving out from the Soviet era and going forwards into Euro-Atlantic integration. The meeting is also expected to involve a discussion with Ukraine’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba in boosting cooperation in the Asia-Pacific.
On 04 April, the US announced its plan to provide USD 2.6 billion as military aid to Ukraine. In a statement released by Pentagon: “The United States will continue... to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements.”
THE GLOBAL FALLOUTS
Implications of the war
On 04 April, the UNHRC issued a resolution asking for access the information on the missing children and civilians who were reported to be transferred into the Russian-occupied territory. In the resolution, Russia was demanded to: “cease the unlawful forced transfer and deportation of civilians and other protected persons within Ukraine or to the Russian Federation.” Apart from this, the UNHRC voted on extending the investigation of war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine.
References
“Ukraine and Romania will hold the First Black Sea Security Conference of the International Crimean Platform in Bucharest,” mfa.gov.ua, 03 April 2023
“Russia does not have forces to go on offensive along entire front line,” Ukrinform, 04 April 2023
“The Iskander-M missile system, capable of using nuclear missiles, was handed over to the Belarusian military, Shoigu said,” RIA NOVOSTI, 04 April 2023
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 4 April 2023.,” UK Ministry of Defence/Twitter, 04 April 2023
“NATO Foreign Ministers to discuss urgent aid to Ukraine, further support – Stoltenberg,” Ukrinform, 04 April 2023
“Ukraine updates: Lavrov vows 'tough' reply to 'hostile' EU,” Deutsche Welle, 04 April 2023